Project Runway 5 - Episode 4 Preview

Hail, Olympians, and welcome to a new week of Project Runway predictions here at Gratz Industries. We have to say, we're feeling pretty smug right now. For three weeks in a row, the designers we've picked to win have come in second. Every. Single. Time. Sure, we're trying to pick the winner, but getting that close makes us feel like we're doing something right. As for the aufed designers, well, we finally got one right last week. Say goodbye, Emily.

Carmen Miranda indeed. Was it worse than Jennifer's dowdy clockwork dress? Again, hard to say. We didn't have Jennifer anywhere near our bottom three, but then we had no clue who would be filling out the last third of the loser bracket. Keith's dress was a hot mess though (to coin a phrase), but we've certainly seen worse.

Terri made her first top three appearance last week, and despite getting absolute raves from guest judge Sandra Bernhard, all Terri got was a "you're in" and third place. Kors and Nina must really have liked Kenley's and Leanne's dresses a lot more, because we've seen the guest judges hold serious sway over the outcome of a competition. (Hel-lo. Santino surviving with that hideous jumpsuit he made for Kara Janx?) Here at Gratz Industries, we thought Leanne's black dress was pretty stellar, and we have to admit we were stunned when Kenley took home the prize for this:

Mork calling Orson, come in 1982! This is your fashion flashback! Somebody page Cyndi Lauper! But last week is bygones. We're here to talk about this week, right? Well, this week is when our smug hits the fan. Yes, we know which six designers will be left on the runway at the end, but we haven't a clue as to who's in the top three and who's in the bottom three.

SPOILER ALERT: Once again, we don't have any prior knowledge of what's to come, other than the guest judge, a vague idea about the competition, and the Bravo videos. If you like to be surprised, here's some recommended reading to tide you over until showtime.

This week, Olympic gold medal speed skater Apolo Ohno guest stars as the designers are given the task of...what? Designing speed skating unis? Doubtful. Those bodysuits the speed skaters wear aren't exactly the same as what figure skaters wear. For starters: no sequins. A "design Apolo's speed skating uniform" challenge would just be too boring.

Not too boring, however, might be to design the outfits the Olympic athletes wear in the opening ceremonies. You've seen this: seemingly endless athletes marching in a circle, lots of dancers with feathers and fans, laser shows, fireworks, rousing orchestral movements, then somebody lights the Olympic flame with a bow and arrow or a wombat or something. And as you watch, you think, "What in Gunn's name are the American athletes wearing!?" Tonight, we think, that question will be answered.

In the preview videos, we can see six designers kept behind for questioning: Jennifer, Terri, Korto, Daniel, Joe, and Jerell. Someone is told his or her design doesn't fit the challenge at all. Someone else is being taunted as having created something for "the Republic of Cocktail Land." (Good one, Kors.) Beyond that and a few glimpses of shoulders, we have precious few clues as to who is who.

For an interesting exercise in expectations, consider at the following:

Episode One Top Three - Kelli, Daniel, Korto
Episode Two Top Three - Suede, Kenley, Stella
Episode Three Top Three - Kenley, Leanne, Terri

Of the nine designers who've placed in the top three in the first three episodes, only one, Kenley appears more than once. And we know she doesn't make the top three this week. Now try the list of losers on for size:

Episode One Bottom Three - Blayne, Stella, Jerry
Episode Two Bottom Three - Korto, Leanne, Wes
Episode Three Bottom Three - Keith, Jennifer, Emily

Not one repeat there. Talk about parity. And three of the bottoms also appear once each in the tops! What a confusing season. And two of the designers have managed to skate (sorry, couldn't help it) through all three weeks without being top three or bottom three: Jerell and Joe. Note too that will change this week, as both make it to the final six, one way or another.

To quantify this a bit more, let's assign each designer a point value for his or her place each episode. Let's give 4 points to the winner, 3 to the second place designer, and 2 to the third place designer. Let's also give one point to each designer who is "safe" each week, since that counts for something. For the losers, let's work it the opposite way: -4 for being aufed, -3 for being runner-up-worst, and -2 for being third worst that week. Here's what we get:

Kenley: 8 points (One 1st, one 2nd, one safe)
Kelli: 6 points (One 1st, two safes)
Suede: 6 points (One 1st, two safes)
Daniel: 5 points (One 2nd, two safes)
Terri: 4 points (One 3rd, two safes)
Jerell: 3 points (all safes)
Joe: 3 points (all safes)
Leanne: 1 point (One 2nd, one 2nd worst, one safe)
Korto: 1 point (One 3rd, one 3rd worst, one safe)
Keith: 0 points (One 3rd worst, two safes)
Blayne: 0 points (One 3rd worst, two safes)
Stella: 0 points (One 3rd, one 2nd worst, one safe)
Jennifer: -1 point (One 2nd worst, two safes)
------------------------------------------
Emily: -2 points (Two safes, one auf)
Wes: -3 points (One safe, one auf)
Jerry: -4 points (One auf)

Why break it down like this? Well, besides proving that beyond Kenley's slight early lead this is anyone's game right now, this can perhaps help us gauge potential future performance based on previous results. (Hey--we don't have much else to go on here.)

If these standings proved prescient, here's how things would break down among the final six:

Top three: Daniel, Terri, and either Jerell or Joe
Bottom Three: Either Jerell or Joe, then Korto and Jennifer

However. If there's one thing all our spreadsheets above have also taught us, it's that one week's goat can easily be next week's hero. Adding to that some nervousness on Daniel's part about this challenge not being something he's comfortable doing, and that his outfit, when glimpsed on the runway, doesn't look "Olympic," and we're tempted to put him in the bottom three.

And then there's Terri. Terri who's been so good up 'til now, and who finally broke into the spotlight last episode. The previews make a big deal out of her losing the fabric she wanted to Keith, who may or may not have known she planned to use it when he had a Mood clerk cut him a few yards. With her first choice of fabric gone, Terri goes for something that looks like black with red stripes standing next to her on the runway, and we are...reticent. Oh yes. We are reticent. Dare we put two favorites in the bottom three? Oh, why the heck not. As we've said before, it's that kind of season.

Who then for the final spot in the bottom three? Well, we catch glimpses of Korto's and Joe's outfits, and both look properly patriotic and sporty, so we're pegging them for the top three. Jerell too has been flying under the radar, so we're tempted to call a breakout for him this week. He's also shown in the clips smiling and nodding--though whether this is a good-natured response to someone telling him his outfit belongs in Cocktail Land is unclear.

But it's getting late, and we've already procrastinated enough. Let's get to it:

This week, we think Korto, Joe, and Jerell will make the top three, with Korto winning the gold medal, Joe the silver, and Jerell the bronze.

We also think Daniel, Terri, and Jennifer will be in the bottom three. It will come down to Jennifer and Terri, and Jennifer will go home.

So there you go. For all we know, we have the top three and bottom three completely reversed. Ugh. Ah well. For those of you who have risen through the ranks of Fafarazzi based on our projections, let us apologize in advance for this week ruining your meteoric rise to the top...